The 2025/26 Premier League season hasn’t kicked off yet, but the Opta Supercomputer has already run over 10,000 simulations to forecast the final standings.
Based on team strength, form, and fixture difficulty, the model offers a data-driven glimpse into what could be a thrilling campaign. ..Continue Reading
Liverpool are predicted to finish first in 28.5 percent of simulations — the highest among all clubs. Arne Slot’s side, fresh off a dominant 2024/25 season, are expected to continue their momentum.
Arsenal follow closely with a 24.3 percent chance of winning the league, while Manchester City sit third with 18.8 percent.
These three clubs are clearly the frontrunners, with no other team crossing the 10 percent mark for first-place probability.
The top five now guarantees Champions League football, and several clubs are in contention:
– Chelsea: 8.4 percent chance of finishing 1st, but strong probabilities across 2nd–6th positions suggest a solid top-five outlook. – Aston Villa: 5.1 percent chance of winning the league, with consistent probabilities from 4th to 10th. – Newcastle United: Though only a 2.9 percent chance of finishing first, they show strong mid-table consistency, with notable chances from 5th to 10th.
Crystal Palace also appear to be punching above their weight, with competitive probabilities across the top half — a sign of their growing strength.
While the full table wasn’t visible, the lower probabilities for clubs like Sunderland, Southampton, and Leeds United suggest they’re among the most likely to finish in the bottom three.
Their chances of survival will hinge on early momentum and smart January reinforcements.
Opta’s Supercomputer uses betting market odds, historical performance, and its proprietary Power Rankings to simulate every match thousands of times.
The result is a probabilistic table that reflects likely outcomes — not guarantees.
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