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Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Modern football exists as much on spreadsheets on laptops as it does in stadiums such is the incredible proliferation of statistical analysis in recent years.
Clubs like Brentford and Brighton & Hove Albion have achieved incredible success, on and off the pitch, by using data to gain significant advantages on clubs with more resources but less knowledge. We’re looking at you Manchester United.
But this shift towards statistics can often lead to individual data points being used to form narratives which are much more nuanced than on first glance.
And a recent chart, detailing how Matheus Cunha “spent more time walking” than any other outfield player in the Premier League, is a perfect example of this misrepresentation.
Data Without Depth
Tweet: “Matheus Cunha is heading to Manchester United but Opta stats reveal he spent more time walking than any other Premier League player this season.”
Match of the Day revealed the Wolverhampton Wanderers forward spent 77.1% of his season “walking” – the highest in the league outside of goalkeepers, with four defenders making up the rest of the top five.
This chart blew up on social media given Cunha is set to join United this summer in a deal worth £62.5 million after an agreement was reached with the Brazilian international.
It was described as evidence the club were welcoming another lazy player with a lackadaisical attitude to Old Trafford for big money; an illustration the Red Devils were not heeding lessons from the past.
But the chart omits the fact that Cunha was one of only two players in the ‘bottom ten’ of the Premier League to reach the 20 mark for goals and assists, along with West Ham winger Jarrod Bowen.
The 26-year-old forward finished the season with 15 goals and six assists without scoring a single penalty. Only five players scored more non-penalty goals than Cunha – Mohammed Salah, Alexander Isak, Erling Haaland, Yoanne Wissa, and Chris Wood.
The chart ignores Cunha produced these numbers while playing for one of the worst teams in the division, a side who flirted with relegation for much of the campaign before Vitor Pereira’s arrival at Christmas.
But, being fair, neither Cunha’s attacking threat nor his place in a poor team (though this experience will prepare him well for a switch to Old Trafford) necessarily excuse a lazy attitude on the pitch. He can be an elite goal threat hindered by inferior teammates and still demonstrate a lethargy which could worry United fans.
The issue is that this chart offers zero insight into what Cunha does for the remaining 22.9% of his time on the pitch.
“If you want explosiveness…”
STATSports, an industry leading data analysis group in football, reveals Cunha ranks highly in comparison to his Wolves’ teammates for ‘explosive’ statistics, dispelling the idea of laziness.
Amongst the senior squad at Molineux, Cunha ranks third for “most sprint distance” and “most sprints”, while clocking in at second for “percentage of his time spent sprinting (per 90).”
The idea that the Brazilian spends the second most amount of time sprinting for his side while simultaneously spending the most amount of time walking out of any outfield Premier League player shows the issue with analysis statistics in isolation.
The former paints the picture of a relentless player who simply does not stop running; the latter suggests a story of laziness and arrogance, a player who considers himself ‘above’ running off the ball such is his talent on it.
As with every black and white story, the truth will lie somewhere in the grey.
Cunha is an explosive player in attack who can contribute much more in defence. This does not indicate an inherent issue with work-rate, rather the reality of a brilliant attacker playing for a team teetering on relegation. A player who believes he has outgrown his club will often struggle to find the motivation to run for every ball.
A good example of this situation was Youri Tielemans at Leicester City who eventually moved to Aston Villa on a free transfer, despite excellent performances at the heart of the Foxes’ midfield. Yet there were concerns over the Belgian’s work-rate, most notably from Leicester fans themselves, and other clubs neglected to follow up their interest.
But it has proven a revelatory signing for Villa with Tielemans arguably Unai Emery’s most important player in the last two season. The 28-year-old midfielder was spurred on by arriving at a bigger club with better players and higher expectations; rather, he felt he was at home.
It should prove a similar experience for Cunha who is believed to see Old Trafford as a dream move with a firm motivation to help turn the clubs fortunes around.
Ruben Amorim has repeatedly referenced the need for hard yards since arriving in Manchester n November. Working hard is a pre-requisite to play under the Portuguese coach, as Marcus Rashford can attest to from Birmingham.
But Amorim has played a key role in identifying Cunha as a target and spoken with the forward over the role he will play for the Red Devils. If the former Sporting manager was in any worried by Cunha’s tendency to walk, United would have walked away from the deal long ago.
STATSports concludes their analysis of the Wolves Player of the Season by stating, “If you want explosiveness, Cunha gives it to you.” Amorim will be hoping the Brazilian international has an explosive effect on United’s misfiring attack next season.
Featured image Carl Recine via Getty Images
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